Here is the final preview for the Major Leagues and now I read Bill Simmons' column about all of the advance stats. I am intrigued by all of this and Teddy P recommended to me that I buy Baseball Prospectus which I might have to do. Anyways here are my basic opinions about the NL Central.
1. St. Louis Cardinals- KEY ACQ: SP Brad Penny I LIKE: Colby Rasmus- Here in Brewer land, we give him a bad rap because he is a poor man's Ryan Braun yet I think he is a really good player for the Cards. I could see him having a big year. I HATE: Chris Carpenter- Even though he is the ace of the staff, is anyone worried that he might break down again? He never is a sure thing for an entire year so that worries me. PREDICTION: They have the ability to make the World Series and Dave Duncan is the master of reshaping guys like Penny so this could be all the making of a three pitchers dominating. Also Albert Pujols will not be pitched around anymore.
2. Milwaukee Brewers- KEY ACQ: CF Carlos Gomez, SP Randy Wolf, C Gregg Zaun I LIKE: Yovani Gallardo- I think Yo's numbers were bit down because his walks plus little run support. I think he could have a huge year if he doesn't nibble the corners. I HATE: Doug Davis- Honestly, I want to see everybody do well but I worry that Davis will just nibble like a small mouse around the corners. He eats innings I like that but he is just an average pitcher. PREDICTION: I will talk more about this in the next days, but they will win the Wild Card... More to come later.
3. Cincinnati Reds- KEY ACQ: SP Aroldis Chapman, SS Orlando Cabrera. I LIKE: Jay Bruce- Still a young guy and another player who is their team version of Braun nonetheless, he could have a big year. If he works out being patient at the plate his average could go up by 15 points. I HATE: Joey Votto- No real reason for this only because my buddy Mike has the same last name and it gets pronounced Joey's way instead of him. This one for you Mike. PREDICTION: They could be flip-flopped with the Cubs because both have gaping holes in their pitching/batting. I like Cabrera, he is a great clubhouse leader and he might be able to set the table for the big bats.
4. Chicago Cubs- KEY ACQ: SP Carlos Silva, CF Marlon Byrd. I LIKE: Geovanny Soto- I cannot believe they project him hitting eighth, I don't like the guy but I think he is a valued talent poised for a big year. I HATE: Carlos Marmol- I might be the only one but I feel like teams are figuring out Marmol slowly. I cannot see him being a dominating closer for the whole year. PREDICTION: Silva and Tom Gorzelanny as your fours/fives? That doesn't impress me at all and I cannot see Byrd doing well hitting in the five spot, he is an upgrade only in character to Milton Bradley.
5. Houston Astros- KEY ACQ: 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Brett Myers, RP Matt Lindstorm I LIKE: Wandy Rodriguez- He pitched so well against the Brew Crew for years and he now is pitching well against everybody. I HATE: Myers- I have no idea what this guy has left and a part of the Ed Wade All-Stars who could be awful this year for the Stros. I expect an ugly season from him. PREDICTION: I could see the Astros possibly finishing last in the NL Central, they have a lot of questions plus a ton of guys prone for injury.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates- KEY ACQ: 2B Akinori Iwamura, RP Octovio Dotel I LIKE: Andrew McCutchen- I don't know if he qualifies for Rookie of the Year but he might be a strong nominee for that award. He does it all for their team and is the future of the Pirates. I HATE: Ronny Cedeno- I mean all of these Pirates could be woeful this season but Cedeno is notoriously bad on offense. PREDICTION: The Pirates have all young guys so they could be bad but I think they will grow as a team and like the Lions, they can be a better team in a few years.
-Charlie.
4 comments:
Making the statement that the Brewers will make the Wild Card is a pretty bold statement considering that last year they were 12 games out of the Wild Card at the end of the season. I would really like to know how does a team that signs a washed-up Doug Davis, a guy who only has had one 12 plus win season in his 11 year-career (AKA: Randy Wolf), and trades an uproductive J.J. Hardy for a guy who has only been more unproductive than J.J. (AKA: Carlos Gomez)make up that 12 game difference? Oh yeah, I almost forget. Greg Zaun, He was a HUGE upgrade at catcher. Let's be realistic. The brewers are an average team and it would take a prayer for them to make the playoffs. Barely made it even after the C.C. trade two years ago. Yes, Braun and Fielder are great. They carry the team on their shoulders but, they don't have any pitching. Derek Jeter even credited this past world series victory on pitching. Let's face it, the Brew Crew ain't got no pitching and you gotta not let your biased get the best of you.
Well you are probably right in regards to being bias but I honestly think they have a chance in a weak NL.
1. Davis is an innings eater, but I am not a big fan of him and Davis' projections aren't good whatsoever. About .500 wins, plus a mid-level four ERA. His BABIP always has been high showing he has shitty luck during his career. FIP is pretty average as well. You win on DD.
2. Randy Wolf is projected to win 10-12 games according to Bill James, CHONE,ZiPS, and Marcel with his ERA projected in the high threes to low fours. Not bad. Wolf's BABIP was very low last year showing he did have some luck during the year but not always. The only think you could argue is his FIP has always been high.
3. Gomez's projections have them with .260 avg 6 homers 58-64 runs 25-28 stolen bases. If this his stats, it would be a fine year. Also defensivly, his UZR tends to be pretty high therefore he will help us defensively.
4. Gregg Zaun and his backup George Kottaras have had an excellent spring. Both I think will be alright. Although not projected for a huge year, I find it hard to believe he is much different from Jason Kendall, which doesn't bother me as much as you think it would.
5. Who do you have winning the NL Wild Card?
-Chuck.
5. I would have two choose to different teams for the Wild Card race before I would consider the Brewers.
1) The Atlanta Braves 2)Colorado Rockies.
Both teams, like the Brewers, almost have a for-sure division winner in the (Phillies) and the (Dodgers). However, I like these teams chances alot more because there aren't really another other teams in their respected divisions that can challenge them like the Reds and the Cubs will do to the Brewers. In my opinon, I am not so worried about the Reds but, I am more worried about the Cubs.
As much as Brewer fans don't want to admit it, they have struggled with the Cubs. It seems like year in and year out, the Cubs still finish better than the crew and I don't see that happening anytime soon. I know the Cubs look to have a down year but, they still have a great manager and core guys on the team that seem to have been their forever.
In concerns to how the brewers may finish, I would give you some credited that they do have a chance in the race. The only reason why I would have to be throw the caution flag is because they are gonna have to fight all year long within their own division (Cards,Cubs,Reds) and still have to worry about the NL for the Wild Card race. Personally, I think that is alot to ask of out of the Brewers considering pitching is a question mark.
I like your reasoning about the Braves especially, I think they are a good team and would have been my next pick.
I wouldn't call the Dodgers complete locks for the NL West. I mean ManRam is a year older, Vicente Padilla is their opening day starter... not good. I think it's wide open between Rockies/Giants/Dodgers.
The fact of the matter is all three divisions have three teams that may bee good enough if everything falls into place. The NL Central has four and maybe (strong one by the way) the NL East could as well. So I get the worry about the Crew not being as strong with their pitching staff.
I also think it will matter whose bottom feeders suck the worst. The Brewers can ill-afford to lose series to teams at the bottom of the division which they have been prone to do in the past.
-Chuck.
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